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India's foreign policy establishment is said to be divided on the issue of Iraq. Some believe that with Bush set on ousting President Saddam Hussein through military strikes and in determining the nature of a post-Saddam dispensation, it would be in India's interest to just go along with the US now and gain a share in the spoils (reconstruction projects) as it has in Afghanistan. However, others believe that India does not stand to gain from an Iraqi invasion. The political upheaval and economic uncertainty it will engender across the Middle East will severely affect India. It could mean the return to India of millions of Indians working in the Middle East who are currently remitting around US$6 billion annually. Furthermore, the impact on the Indian economy will be severe given the fact that Arab oil accounts for almost two-thirds of India's crude imports. Indian officials are worried that Washington's current preoccupation with Iraq has distracted its attention away from the military operations against al-Qaeda.

An American invasion of Iraq would lead to a more serious dilution of the operations, Delhi fears. India has an enormous interest in seeing al-Qaeda rooted out. M H Ansari, a former Indian ambassador to Saudi Arabia, told the weekly news magazine Outlook that "India should be happy with the status quo where there's no strategic hostility to New Delhi in the Arab world and there's $10 billion trade with the Gulf countries." While India's support will not influence US decisions on Iraq, New Delhi's position on the evolving situation is of some significance. India not joining an anti-Iraq coalition in the event of an attack on that country will underscore the fact that democracies do not go to war easily. For long, the US, while willing to overlook India's trade ties with Iraq, has been peeved with its reluctance to vote with Washington in the UN on key global issues.

In a statement of support to Baghdad, India's Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee said this week that he hoped there would be no war in Iraq. India has consistently expressed its opposition to the unilateral use of force against Iraq and it has consistently called for a diplomatic solution to the crisis within the UN framework. In an interview with the Arab media late in August, Vajpayee was asked what he thought of President George W Bush's axis of evil definition and whether India would support US military action against Iraq to effect a regime change. He responded, "India is vitally interested in the peace and prosperity of the Gulf region and has, therefore, supported all efforts to defuse the crisis relating to Iraq. In that respect, India supports the resumption of diplomatic efforts under the auspices of the United Nations." India has kept a low profile on the Iraq crisis in recent weeks, refraining from commenting on the various proposals that were being considered by the Security Council.

It is unlikely that it will commit combat troops. Foreign Minister Phil Goff spelled out New Zealand's position during a 40-minute meeting yesterday with US charge d'affairs Phil Wall, second-in-charge at the American Embassy in Wellington. The meeting was held at Mr Wall's request as Washington sounds out about 50 countries on possible contributions to an American-led force. After the meeting, Mr Goff said Mr Wall had outlined contingency plans for action if Iraq did not comply with the requirements of the UN Security Council. For this reason and as a contingency against Iraqi refusal to comply, the United States is seeking possible contributions for military or humanitarian assistance if force is used against Iraq." Mr Goff told Mr Wall that New Zealand would consider calls for assistance if action against Iraq was UN-mandated and within international law. "However, I reiterated that these conditions needed to be met, and that New Zealand's strong view was that force should be used only as a last resort.

GETS POSITIVE RESPONSES ON IRAQ Associated Press, 22nd November WASHINGTON: The worldwide response to U.S. Iraq is cautiously positive, Bush administration officials said Thursday. A key Arab country, Saudi Arabia, has assured the United States it would provide logistical support, two U.S. It is essentially a "wink-and-a-nod" reply, said the officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, and help is contingent on limited use of Saudi territory. President Jacques Chirac of France said Wednesday in Prague that the United States cannot determine on its own whether to wage war against Iraq. The U.N. Security Council "is the only body established to put in motion action of a military nature, to take the responsibility, to commit the international community," Chirac said. GOFF TELLS AMERICA WHERE NZ STANDS ON IRAQ WAR by John Armstrong New Zealand Herald, 23rd November New Zealand has told the US it will contribute humanitarian, medical or logistic support to an invasion of Iraq if military action is taken under United Nations mandate.

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